As the Fed tries to absorb surplus currency, the US repo market flirts with negative rates: An explanation

Published: Apr 2021

Excess cash in the financial system has pushed down overnight interest rates, making them negative in some cases, according to economists, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise the short-term rates, it controls. The overnight repurchase rate, which calculates the cost of borrowing short-term cash using Treasuries or other debt securities as leverage, fell as low as -0.06% in late March, and then rose to about 0.01 percent on Friday. Since about March, the US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), a short-term reference rate that has replaced the benchmark London interbank offered rates (LIBOR), has been pinned at 0.01 percent.

According to analysts, the Fed needs to stop SOFR going pessimistic, because it has serious technical problems with its components. Expectations are growing that the Fed will quickly raise the rate it charges for loans to nonbanks at its reverse repo window, which is currently at 0%, as well as the interest rate, it pays banks for surplus reserves (IOER), which is currently at 0.10 percent. Lorie Logan, the New York Fed's executive vice president and manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA), said on Thursday, that the Fed is prepared to change the prices it sets if necessary, reiterating remarks she made last week.

In 2013, the Federal Reserve introduced the reverse repo programme (RRP) to absorb excess cash in the repo market and establish a strict floor under market prices, especially its policy rate. In an overnight basis, qualified counterparties lend cash to the Fed in exchange for Treasury collateral. The Fed increased the volume that counterparties will lend to $80 billion from $30 billion at its March meeting. So far this week, the Fed has used the RRP window to absorb over $148 billion in surplus liquidity.

A borrower uses the US Treasuries and other high-quality securities as collateral in a repo trade, to collect funds, usually overnight, to fund their trading and lending operations. They repay their loans plus a nominal amount of interest the following day and get their bonds back. They repurchase, or repo, the bonds, in other words. Since overnight repo rates went negative a few times in February and March, investors flocked to the Federal Reserve's RRP window, where the rate is set at 0%. Money market funds, insurance firms, businesses, municipalities, central banks, and commercial banks with surplus cash to invest are common repo lenders. Dealers and depository companies, on the other hand, borrow cash against long positions of securities to fund their inventory and balance sheet.

The fed funds rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans, in order to satisfy the US central bank's reserve requirements. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determines the fed funds rate's target range, which is currently 0 percent to 0.25 percent. The actual federal funds rate is 0.07 percent. Other interest rates, such as those on credit cards, mortgages, and bank loans, are influenced by the fed funds rate. The fed funds market has made it easier for banks to move the most liquid funds. The New York Fed then uses open market operations to change the availability of reserves in the economy, influencing overnight fed funds to exchange within the target range, in conjunction with the IOER.

The rate at which Federal Reserve banks pay interest on reserve deposits held by depository institutions at their local Fed bank,s is known as interest on reserves (IOR). Interest on necessary reserves, which is currently at 0.10 percent, is one aspect of IOR. Paying interest on required deposits eliminates the opportunity expense that banks face by not investing such reserves in interest-bearing assets, according to the New York Fed's website.